The Central Bank of Russia left the key rate unchanged at 21% per annum at its meeting on April 25. Maintaining the rate for the fourth time in a row indicates the regulator’s tough monetary policy. But despite its record high level, the Central Bank notes that inflationary pressure is still decreasing, and “the economy is gradually beginning to return to a balanced growth trajectory.”
The Central Bank also updated its forecast for the average rate for 2025. Now its value is in the range of 19.5–21.5% (previously — 19–22%). For the period from the end of April to December, the rate is expected to fluctuate between 18.8 and 21.8%.
Читайте также
Results of the week 22 – 28
The key rate is a tool of the Central Bank that affects the cost of loans and overall monetary activity in the country. It depends on the current level of inflation and inflation expectations of the population and business, the general state of the economy. The Central Bank regulates the rate to restrain price growth and maintain economic stability.
Inflation processes play a key role in rate decisions. At the beginning of 2025, inflation decreased compared to the end of 2024, but remained, of course, above the Central Bank’s target indicator of 4%. On April 21, inflation was 10.3%. The Central Bank expects a further decrease in inflationary pressure, but admits that price growth is not slowing down for all goods and services. According to a survey by the Institute of the Public Opinion Foundation (inFOM), the population expects inflation to reach 13.1%, and businesses – up to 19.8%. Such high values prevent a rapid decline in prices, which does not allow lowering the key rate.
External factors and the geopolitical situation have a significant impact on the rate. According to Nabiullina, “major changes are taking place in global trade.” It is not yet clear how they will affect the global economy and Russia. “This is a new significant risk that we must take into account,” the head of the Central Bank adds.
The next meeting of the Central Bank is scheduled for June 6. But most analysts agree that the rate will not change in the near future. The Central Bank will probably maintain its course on a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. Its level, according to forecasts, will be 7-8% in 2025 and will return to the target value of 4% only in 2026. There is also a more optimistic forecast. Some experts suggest that the rate reduction cycle may still begin in the summer. Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, believes that under favorable conditions, the key rate may be adopted at the meeting on July 25 at the level of 19-20%.
You can find out what interest rates apply in other countries here.
Menu 
Search 
Knowledge 
Events 
News